Big Brother 15: Opinions, Odds, and Predictions For July 25, 2013
Written by MattD
Big Brother 15
Opinions, Odds, and Predictions For July 25, 2013
A very pleasant hello to everybody! Another week of Big Brother 15 has gone by. Judd got the HOH, we had all kinds of controversy with the MVP vote, Elissa was on the block for about a minute and eight seconds, now it's GM, Kaitlin, and Aaryn on the block. As I'm typing this it looks like Kaitlyn is going and Aaryn is staying, but the people that want Aaryn to go aren't giving up yet. These are my thoughts:
The MVP controversy: As we all know we were the MVP, and Elissa was our original nominee. This caused so much uproar that at one point #BB15 was trending third on twitter in spite of the fact that at the time not only was the show not on but the feeds were blacked out because of the POV comp. It's fairly obvious to everyone that Aaryn was the first choice to go up, but of course she was already nominated. That means Elissa finished either 2nd or 3rd in the voting. Some people, actually quite a few people refused to accept this saying that she got nominated because people thought they were voting for MVP. i'm sure there's a few people that did do this, but I doubt it even swung the vote by even 1%. Think about it, for someone to vote for Elissa (or anyone) thinking they were voting for MVP would have to 1) Miss the episode, miss the segment where it was explained, or not be paying attention when it was announced, 2) Also care enough about the show to go online and vote, and 3) misread the directions saying they were voting to nominate someone. ALL THREE of those conditions have to exist for someone to vote that way. Like Andy said for every person that loved Rachel there were two that hated her. Then there were the Einstein's in the house that thought she nominated herself. I didn't even know that was legal to begin with but would you do that? I mean 2 of the 3 people evicted were put on the block by the MVP. Actually Spencer of all people came up with a logical explanation for that saying it would make sense if Elissa also had Coup de tat.
Aaand more Elissa: Tuesday night was a fun night as Elissa more or less fell off her rocker. We had our first House Meeting of the year where Elissa pretty much called out everybody for everything, by the time the night was over, everybody including Helen was through with her. Explanations on twitter were focused on PMS, and Rachel chimed in saying she was doing what she did to shake things up so Aaryn would go! My theory is she's nuts, but I'm sure the PMS didn't help that either. Anyhoo by listening to the feeds and reading updates yesterday it sounds like Helen and her are still allies or at least they're talking that way.
Don't forget there's still 13 of them in the house: The first three seasons didn't even have that many to start the game. Generally speaking we've started with 14, so usually at this point we're just getting started. That's why the alliances and non-alliances are still so complicated.
Revisiting my voting: For the Have-nots the one time they got Grapefruit and Guacamole I voted for that, the other times either I didn't vote or I voted for something other than what they got. For MVP here how it went :
Week 1 voted for Helen (Elissa won) Week 2 voted for Helen (Elissa won) Week 3 voted for Helen (Elissa won) Week 4 for nominee I voted for Aaryn 5 times, GM 4 times, and Katilin 1 time. (all three are up) I'm still on Helen's bandwagon but if they do the MVP the way they did the first three weeks, I think I'm voting for Jay You Double Dee. He might have a shot of overtaking Elissa.
Odds: I've written off GM, Aaryn, and Katilyn, and I don't think Elissa has the mindset to win this, her odds would be even longer if there was no MVP vote. Judd, Andy, and Helen are in the best shape at this point. Keep an eye on Jessie and McRae and maybe even Candace, but if you want to win this game, the three at the top are the ones you need to target.
Judd 4-1 Andy 4-1 Helen 5-1 Jessie 9-1 McRae 10-1 Candace 13-1 Howard 15-1 Amanda 16-1 Spencer 16-1 Elissa 20-1 GM/Katlyn/Aaryn 50-1
Judd 4-1: I don't think his nominations increased the target on his back. There's a number of people that will be targeted before him even if one of the two surviving nominees win HOH this week. Also he seems to be more popular than Helen or Andy, that could help him down the road depending on how much power the producers want to give us.
Andy 4-1: Watching him on the feeds can be insane. That kid covers a lot of ground out there going from conversation to conversation. The target on his back right now cannot be any smaller. The question might be can he win comps later in the game if he needs to.
Helen 5-1: Whenever I hear the other side of the game strategize I never hear her name as someone that has to go next. Regardless of who wins HOH, I don't think she'll be any higher than the #3 target. Another thing she has going for her is most of the people that are below her really suck. She really annoys the hard-core live feed watchers, earlier this week when she had a curfew, someone posted a link on twitter saying " Helen will shut up in" and then listing the hours, minutes, and seconds counting down to her bedtime. When the game started, my biggest fear was she would be evicted before anyone would get to know her, and not be remembered for anything. No, I'm not worried about that anymore.
Jessie 9-1: She seems to be under the radar pretty good. With Helen there's probably more risk of someone making a big move and taking her out earlier than I think, but Jessie's really likely to be there awhile regardless of how good or bad she plays.
McRae 10-1: If he can outlast Amanda he could contend for it, but so far I'm not impressed. I mean last week, he told people he was MVP and took credit/blame for a nomination he didn't make. why on earth would you do that? He's not sitting terrible at this point so we'll see.
Candace 13-1: How many showmances is that this season? Quite a few. If her or Howard win an HOH I guess it'll be those two upstairs making babies.
Howard 14-1: Him and Spencer have yet to try anything that's worked so far. That could change of course, he now knows not to vote in the minority and then try to pin it on someone. Live and learn.
Amanda 16-1: Now that the whole house knows she wants Howard out of there, that just increases the target on her back. Some people have the opinion that having sex in someone else's HOH bed then not washing the sheets the next day is poor etiquette, might want to make a mental note of it. Production sure made her seem like a victim last night with Elissa taking jabs at her about her bathing suit. I thought it was funny.
Spencer16-1: Almost seems like a when not an if when he gets evicted. Not to the extent of the trio that's on the block now, but something needs to change quickly for him.
Elissa 20-1: They'll keep her around as long as she's winning MVP and they have that use for her, if they either stop the twist or she stops winning it, they'll cut her loose. The other thing that could happen if someone else wins in fact I should say probably will happen is she'll get blamed for the nomination. I mean if people thought she had it this week...
GM 50-1: She could stay a few weeks before they get rid of her.
Aaryn/Katilyn 50-1: Helen wants Katilyn gone really bad, and Elissa wants Aaryn gone really bad, Helen so far has gotten her way every week, so my money's on Katilyn having the conversation with Julie tonight. It's really much ado about nothing. Either one of them could win HOH if they stay.
Predictions: I think Katilyn will go, and I don't think it'll be 5-4. If the votes aren't there for Aaryn then I think the ones that would have voted for her will vote with the house and it'll be 9-0. HOH sounds like a crapshoot, so it could be anyone. I'll say we'll have another first time HOH. If they go back to the old MVP system can Judd overtake Elissa? I'll say not quite yet.
Thanks for reading and I'll see you next time again my twitter handle is @MattD34, and I'll follow back anyone from here.